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HOUSTON -- The Way-Too-Early Top 25 always earns its moniker. The first few seconds after the national title game, confetti still wafting in the celebratory air, is a hilariously premature point to try to pin down what the sport will look like in seven months. This is a standard disclaimer. We trot it out every year. We don't pretend otherwise.
And even by those not-exactly-lofty standards, this edition is especially uncertain.
For years, the NCAA imposed a tight deadline that essentially forced players to jump in the draft with little more than second-hand information, filtered through their coaches. This year, players can declare for the draft, participate in pre-draft activities, talk to NBA front offices, even show up to the combine, and -- provided they don't hire an agent, and withdraw their name by May 25 -- return to college with their eligibility intact.
This is a hugely positive, player-first change. It also makes these rankings even harder to nail down. Draft projections used to be a fairly reliable tool. Now? Who knows?
Be forewarned: We feel genuinely, concretely confident about exactly one team on this list. Fortunately, that team is the ...
Two years after a stellar freshman class carried him to his fifth national title, Mike Krzyzewski will once again bring a swath of the nation's top talent to Durham, including forwards Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum -- the sport's top two prospects, period -- as well as guard Frank Jackson, who ranks No. 11. Those future pros will join one of the nation's best pure scorers, guardGrayson Allen, and the rest of an already talented, largely intact roster (including likely medical redshirt candidate Amile Jefferson) that will go two deep at basically every position. In other words, if you enjoy a hearty dose of Duke schadenfreude in your hoops diet -- if you enjoyed the Allen tripping thing and "Incorrect Response"-Gate 2016 -- you should stockpile some winter reserves. Because Duke's next team isn't going to be funny. Winter is coming.
Kris Jenkins has a tidy old-man game. Jalen Brunson sort of reminds you of Andre Miller. In general, the 2015-16 Wildcats played with immense precision and poise. You might have assumed, then, that Jay Wright's Final Four team was stocked with fourth years. In reality? It had two. So, yes, sure, the departures of Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu will be hugely impactful, but bringing back basically everyone else -- Jenkins, Brunson, Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges and, last but not least, national player of the year candidate Josh Hart -- will soften the landing considerably. Also? Wright's team has won 86 percent of its games in the past three seasons. The only major conference team in the last 20 years to do that is Duke, which did it five times from 1997-98 to 2000-02. So, yeah. The Wildcats will be more than fine.
Another Way Too Early Top 25, another offseason roster overhaul, another obvious top-five spot for Kentucky. The standard operating procedure in Lexington, Kentucky, continues apace. Good thing, too, not only because burly forward Bam Adebayo could bring some "man" to 2015-16's underwhelming frontcourt, but because the concept of replacing both Jamal Murray (one of the nation's best pure perimeter scorers) and Tyler Ulis (one of the nation's best players, full stop) would be all but unthinkable for any coach not named John Calipari. If Ulis decides to return for his junior year -- unlikely, but not totally impossible -- well, look out.
Combined with an Elite Eight loss, the end of Perry Ellis' career, andCheick Diallo dipping his toe in the draft waters, Wayne Selden Jr.'sannouncement last week -- that after a breakout junior campaign he would enter the NBA draft and, yes, hire an agent -- was one more bummer to KU fans could add to their pile. We suggest a simple exercise: Stand in front of mirror, say "Bill Self is my favorite team's basketball coach," five or 10 times, and then see how you feel. Whether Diallo stays in the draft or not, the Jayhawks will still have a devastating Frank Mason III/Devonte' Graham backcourt combo, talented freshman arrivals, a host of rising role players, tons of depth, and a coach coming off his 12th straight Big 12 title. See? Much better.
